This weekend sees the final two games in pool 2 of the Heineken Cup. After last week's nailbiter, Leinster and Wasps are equal in pool points, but Leinster are ahead as they have a bigger points difference from the matches (despite Wasps winning more games). Tomorrow, Wasps face Castres in France, and Leinster are at home to Edinburgh.
Wasps' destiny is not in their own hands. To top the pool, Wasps must do better against Castres than Leinster do against Edinburgh. Wasps can lose with a bonus as long as Leinster lose without a bonus.
Realistically, Wasps must seek nothing less than a bonus point win.
The big advantage is that Wasps can go into the game knowing the results in Pools 1, 3, 4 and 6 - with Pool 5 being played after the Wasps game.
Should Leinster top the table at the end of the day, Wasps could still get through as a highest place second place team. Should Wasps win and still be in second place, we're still with a chance. Should Wasps lose, then the results of several other matches need to go the 'right way'.
Fortunately, Pool 6 is already out of contention - the second place score there is 15 points and all games are played.
Pool 4 still has a game to play, but no team there can catch up.
In Pool 1, Wasps would need Clermont Auvergne to lose.
In Pool 3, Wasps would need Perpignan and Ospreys to lose.
If all of the above results happen, and Wasps lose, the other losing second place would be in Pool 5.
In Pool 1, Montauban play Munster and Sale play Clermont Auvergne today.
Sale winning without a bonus is ideal for Wasps here (if they win with a bonus and Wasps lose, I'm not sure how the place is decided)
In Pool 3, Ospreys play Leicester and Treviso play Perpignan.
If Wasps lose, then we would need Ospreys and Perpignan to lose.
In Pool 4, Quins play Scarlets today, and Stade Français play Ulster. If Wasps lose, we will want to have seen Ulster win.
In Pool 5, played tomorrow, Bath play Toulouse and Glasgow play Newport.
If Wasps win without a bonus, but come second in the pool, we would need something other than a draw in Bath-Toulouse. If Wasps lose, then Toulouse or Bath would get through.
Pool 6 is already decided. Cardiff Blues go through, and Biarritz beat Gloucester causing Glaws to crash out.