UK Elect

Detailed forecasting and 'What if?' scenarios are available at the UK Elect website for the UK General Election:

The what if scenarios linked to on the homepage are:

  1. "What if the Tories overtook Labour in votes?" (answer, Labour win)
  2. "What if the Liberal Democrat vote surged?" (answer: Labour win)
  3. "What if the Labour vote slumped?" (answer: No Overall Control, Labour largest share)
  4. "What if the Tories reach 40%?" (answer: No Overall Control, Labour largest share)
  5. "What if Tactical Voting explodes?" (answer: Labour win)
  6. "What if main Parties get equal votes?" (answer: Labour win)

These back up the BBC seat calculator, giving lie to claims of 'Vote Lib Dem, get Conservative', especially "What if the Liberal Democrat vote surged?".

Findings like this frees up disgruntled voters, worried about a Tory government, to make their protest heard. This really does look like a 'no lose' situation for Labour, and their protestations seem to be because they want another (unhealthy) 3 figure majority.

This book looks like a good history of the Uk voting system: From Votes to Seats